In 2001, the AFL season opens with a marquee matchup between recent premiers Essendon and North Melbourne. Both clubs boast multiple flags from the prior decade, fueling a fierce rivalry. Essendon unfurls its 16th premiership flag, matching Carlton’s record, and enters as heavy favorites for a 17th after losing just six of 45 games. The landscape features no Gold Coast, GWS Giants, or Tasmania teams. Hawthorn, Sydney, and Geelong lag behind their future dominant forms, while Brisbane builds toward a dynasty post-Fitzroy merger. Essendon and Carlton stand as top contenders, their clashes carrying high stakes after Carlton’s 1999 upset over Essendon.
Yet both clubs endure 25 years without another flag—Carlton’s drought now at 31 years, Essendon’s at 26, each team’s longest ever. Their paths diverge through mediocre and dismal seasons. Here are 10 turning points explaining the decline of these Victorian powerhouses.
2002: Carlton Penalized for Salary Cap Breaches
Carlton’s fall traces to salary cap mismanagement in 2000-2001. Key 1995 premiership players depart by the late 1990s. The Blues claim their first wooden spoon in 2002, finishing last at 3-19. A top draft spot awaits, eyeing prospects like Brendon Goddard, but the AFL rules deliberate cap cheating involving payments to Stephen Silvagni, Craig Bradley, Fraser Brown, and Stephen O’Reilly. Penalties strip picks 1, 2, 31, and 34 in 2002, all 2003 pre-season picks, and first- and second-round 2003 selections. In 2003, second-last at 4-18 earns a priority pick for Andrew Walker at No. 2 overall, after the Bulldogs snag Adam Cooney at No. 1.
2002: Essendon Overhauls Premiership Core Amid Cap Crisis
Despite a 2001 grand final loss to Brisbane, Essendon’s young list promises contention. Salary structures assume a 10% cap rise, but it increases by only 3.3%, creating a $600,000 shortfall. After trading Damien Hardwick, coach Kevin Sheedy opts to move role players Justin Blumfield, Chris Heffernan, and Blake Caracella over stars Matthew Lloyd, James Hird, or Marc Mercuri. By 2003 start, only 13 of 22 from the 2000 grand final remain. Former assistant Robert Shaw later reflects: “You share premierships, you share grand finals, you share trust and honesty and loyalty. Then you pick up a phone and sack them, and it was never the same.” Sheedy nearly quits. Instead, Essendon pursues veterans like Scott Camporeale, Matthew Allan, Justin Murphy, Mark Alvey, Ty Zantuck, and Damien Cupido, none restoring contention.
2006: Matthew Lloyd’s Devastating Hamstring Injury
By 2006, Essendon’s contention era fades, with nine 2000 grand final players left and James Hird no longer captain. Matthew Lloyd, 28 and a top forward, leads the side. He boots eight goals, including six past Leo Barry, in a round-one win over Sydney, then four in round two. But round three brings a severe hamstring tear diving for a mark, sidelining him for the season. Mobility lost, Lloyd retires at 31 three years later.
2007: Essendon Mishandles Sheedy Exit, Passes on Hardwick
Sheedy’s final years sour after four flags. His last finals trip is 2004. Seasons follow with eight, three, and 10 wins. In 2007, 7-4 start includes victories over Sydney and West Coast, but the club announces no contract renewal mid-contention. Sheedy finishes the year. Successors eyed include Neale Daniher, Peter Sumich, Damien Hardwick, and Matthew Knights. Knights wins for club ties; Hardwick, a 2000 premiership player, places second after a PowerPoint glitch rattles him. Then-CEO Peter Jackson notes: “It didn’t work properly and he got a bit rattled.” Knights coaches three years before 2010 sacking.
2009: Carlton Trades Star Forward Brendan Fevola
By late 2000s, Carlton rebuilds with captain Chris Judd, young guns Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, and forward Brendan Fevola. Fevola earns third All-Australian nod and second Coleman Medal with 89 goals in 2009, outpacing Lance Franklin, Jonathan Brown, and Nick Riewoldt over 2006-2009. Off-field issues peak at the Brownlow count, where a drunk Fevola disrupts Channel Nine’s Footy Show segment. At 28, Carlton trades him to Brisbane for Lachie Henderson and a pick becoming Kane Lucas.
2012: Carlton Dumps Ratten for Malthouse Gamble
Brett Ratten revives Carlton with three straight finals, including a 2011 elimination win over Essendon—their first since 2000. Sacked after 11 wins in 2012, the Blues hire Mick Malthouse post his third flag. His 52 games yield middling results: ninth in 2013, but an upset over Richmond after Essendon’s finals ban. Year two starts 0-4, ends 7-17 amid feuds with president Mark LoGiudice and CEO Steven Trigg. 2015 opens 1-7; sacked. Malthouse later says: “the biggest disappointment of my coaching career is that I should have looked further into Carlton’s lack of forward thinking before I signed on.” Interim John Barker oversees a last-place 4-18 finish, drafting Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, and Charlie Curnow.
2013: Essendon Supplements Saga Erupts
2013 optimism builds on 2012 gains, Brownlow captain Jobe Watson, coach James Hird, and assistant Mark Thompson. February self-report to AFL and ASADA over 2012 supplements triggers a four-year ordeal costing millions. August brings $2 million fine, finals exclusion despite 14-8 record (seventh place), lost picks, and Hird’s 12-month ban. He returns, exits 2015. CAS suspends 34 players in 2016; Watson returns Brownlow. Essendon’s 14 wins remain their season high since 2001.
2018: Joe Daniher’s Groin Injuries Derail Career
Post-scandal, Essendon eyes contention with Dyson Heppell, Michael Hurley, Cale Hooker, Zach Merrett, and 2017 All-Australian Joe Daniher (65 goals). Daniher starts 2018 slowly, shut down after seven games with osteitis pubis. 2019 brings calf then groin woes; four games played. Trade request to Sydney denied; 11 games in final three years before Brisbane free agency. There, groin issues vanish: 96 games, 204 goals, 2024 premiership before retirement.
2022: Essendon Sacks Rutten Amid Clarkson Pursuit
Ben Rutten reaches finals in 2021 after 2020 transition. 2022 slumps to 7-15 (15th). Late power struggle installs Dave Barham as president, who courts Alastair Clarkson despite Rutten’s contract. Clarkson declines for North Melbourne. Rutten coaches finale loss, calls for unity, sacked next day. Review favors Brad Scott over Hird.
2025: Carlton President’s Scandal Clouds Progress
Luke Sayers, board member nine years, becomes president mid-2021. Review prompts CEO Cain Liddle and coach David Teague sackings; Brian Cook and Michael Voss hired. Voss nears finals year one, prelim year two—nearly grand final vs. Brisbane. Pre-2025, Sayers posts then deletes lewd Twitter image. AFL Integrity Unit clears hack claim; he steps down. Blues stumble to 9-14 (11th).
Bonus: Draft Misses Plague Both Clubs
Poor drafting undermines both in list-driven era. Carlton’s 10 top-five picks since 2003 yield All-Australians Marc Murphy, Jacob Weitering, Sam Walsh; busts like Sam Petrevski-Seton, Paddy Dow. Essendon whiffs 12 top-20 picks 2000-2007 (only Patrick Ryder All-Australian, at Port); 2020s top-15s under Adrian Dodoro fail to star, hollowing lists.
