Formula One kicks off the 2026 season this weekend at the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne. New regulations bring lighter, smaller cars that prioritize agility over outright speed. The grid expands to 11 teams, with Cadillac entering F1 for the first time and Sauber transitioning to Audi. Pre-season testing highlights Mercedes and Ferrari as frontrunners, though McLaren and reigning champion Lando Norris aim to challenge strongly.

Drivers’ Championship Contenders

Analysts overwhelmingly back George Russell of Mercedes as the 2026 Drivers’ Champion. Daniel Moxon points to Russell’s confident pre-season demeanor and his ability to maximize the car’s potential, noting his teammate Kimi Antonelli needs more consistency in his second year.

Charlie Malam echoes this, predicting Russell’s best career season with more victories than his previous 152 races combined. Archie Griggs highlights Russell’s growth and Mercedes’ anticipated engine edge. Luke Chillingsworth emphasizes Russell’s race-winning prowess from 2025 and Mercedes’ pre-testing favoritism.

Nathan Ridley forecasts Russell atop the podium in Abu Dhabi, despite potential power unit uncertainties. Only Dan Burnham dissents, favoring Max Verstappen’s unmatched experience amid the regulatory shake-up.

Constructors’ Championship Battle

Mercedes emerges as the consensus pick for Constructors’ honors. Moxon credits their power unit advantage through the first seven Grands Prix and three Sprints before mid-season tweaks, outpacing McLaren’s customer engine integration.

Malam tips Ferrari instead, citing Lewis Hamilton’s renewed focus and the strong Leclerc-Hamilton pairing ending the Scuderia’s 18-year drought, even if Leclerc returns to the top three. Griggs, Chillingsworth, Burnham, and Ridley reinforce Mercedes’ dominance, bolstered by their history in regulation changes and driver lineup.

Drivers Facing Seat Uncertainty

At least three drivers risk losing their seats before or for 2027, excluding potential retirements from Fernando Alonso or Lewis Hamilton. Moxon flags Esteban Ocon, Franco Colapinto, and Cadillac veterans as vulnerable, with Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson needing to secure Red Bull spots.

Race Winners Forecast

Malam predicts at least seven different winners across 24 races, matching 2024’s variety. Bankers include Verstappen, Leclerc, and Russell, plus wins for Norris, Piastri, Hamilton (his first since Spa 2024), and Pierre Gasly for his second career victory.

Bold Season Predictions

Griggs anticipates Christian Horner’s return to the paddock, possibly with Alpine. Chillingsworth sees Aston Martin, despite top facilities, Newey, and Alonso, struggling worst early on, outpacing newcomers Cadillac.

Burnham envisions Verstappen retiring as champion. Ridley foresees Oscar Piastri departing McLaren amid rising tensions with Norris, potentially joining Aston Martin in 2027.