Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, far exceeding the eastern front timeline of World War II. Soviet forces advanced from Leningrad to Berlin in just over 15 months during 1944-45, but current Russian progress remains glacial: 70 meters per day near Pokrovsk and 23 meters near Kupiansk, data from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies reveals.
Slow Territorial Advances
These minimal gains total 1,865 square miles in 2025, representing only 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory. Claims of Ukraine’s impending defeat do not align with battlefield realities, despite widespread disruptions from Russian strikes leaving hundreds of thousands without electricity, heating, or water.
Ukrainian Counteroffensives Gain Ground
Ukraine refines its strategy with notable pushbacks. A counterattack north of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia province secures an estimated 40 square miles this month, aided by Starlink’s recent block on Russian use of the system within Ukraine. This builds on the recapture of Kupiansk in Kharkiv region last December, where President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited shortly after Russian claims of capture.
“The Kremlin is trying to create a narrative that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse,” states Christina Harward of the Institute for the Study of War. “It’s completely false. What in fact we are seeing are small-scale liberations by Ukraine, taking advantage of winter weather and the blocking of Starlink.”
Russian Demands and NATO Assessments
Russia persists in demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and remaining Donetsk areas, proposing a demilitarized zone under its patrol. A NATO intelligence official estimates Russia cannot seize the region within the next 18 months, given its urban density and potential for over 600,000 casualties.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently referenced alleged Anchorage agreements from an August Alaska summit, claiming U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to cede Donetsk without resistance. However, U.S. policy resists enforcement amid objections from Ukraine and Europe.
This contrasts sharply with events a year ago, when Trump and Zelenskyy clashed publicly. “The worst-case scenario didn’t happen, though,” notes Orysia Lutsevych, Ukraine expert at Chatham House. “The US is selling arms to Ukraine, still supplying intelligence and whatever the pressure, it is not so strong that Kyiv has to concede.”
Civilian Hardships and Air Defense Challenges
Ukraine grapples with severe utility crises from systematic Russian bombings. Over a million residents lack power, heating, and water amid -20C temperatures. In Kyiv, 2,600 buildings remain affected, with indoor temperatures dropping to 5-6C in eastern areas—a tactic likened to historical ‘kholodomor’ strategies.
Western air defense shortages worsen, as production lags. Ground-based interceptors like Wild Hornets’ Sting missiles deploy, but analysis from the Institute for Science and International Security indicates Shahed drones’ success rate rose from 6% in January to 29-30% later in the year. These attacks yield little strategic advantage for Russia.
Escalating Casualty Targets and Battlefield Stalemate
Ukraine adopts aggressive tactics. New Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov aims to inflict 50,000 Russian casualties monthly, up from 35,000, with NATO estimating 20,000-25,000 fatalities. This exceeds Russia’s 30,000-35,000 monthly recruitment, potentially forcing mobilization or negotiations.
Drones cause 80% of casualties, penetrating up to 15 miles and limiting massed assaults except in poor visibility. Yet, exhaustion plagues Ukraine: 200,000 soldiers are absent without leave. “I don’t see a strategy in Europe, and the US has its eggs in the peace process, but there is no process if Russia is not engaging properly,” warns Jade McGlynn, research fellow at King’s College.
