Homecoming
Six years after releasing his debut album, Probability The Rapper returns along with his sophomore album amid a altering world and a major shift in his personal life.
Phrases: Peter A. Berry
Editor’s Word: This story seems within the Fall 2025 situation of XXL Journal, on newsstands now and out there on the market on the XXL web site.
If Probability The Rapper is experiencing a profession redemption arc, it’s unclear whether or not he acknowledges it. On August 15, the discharge date of his sophomore album, Star Line, he joins a Zoom name from his hometown of Chicago. This album marks his first main launch since his 2019 debut LP, The Huge Day, which didn’t carry out effectively, commercially. In consequence, there’s a lot at stake for him. Nonetheless, quite than dwelling on grand comeback narratives or searching for revenge on nameless critics, Probability offers a refreshingly sensible perspective on the targets for his new undertaking.
“Crucial factor that Probability The Rapper could possibly be placing his pen to will not be at all times essentially proving the haters unsuitable,” the rapper explains. “What I did with my undertaking is I made lots of people who liked me completely happy and put out a undertaking that they might dwell with for a very long time.”
After Chancelor Bennett used his innate dexterity and panoramic altruism to interrupt out with initiatives like 10 Day (2012) and Acid Rap (2013), the Midwest MC took dwelling the 2017 Grammy for Greatest Rap Album for the 2016 mixtape Coloring Boookay. By profitable a gramophone with a free undertaking, Probability helped rewrite music trade norms. That very same yr, his visitor look on DJ Khaled’s “I’m The One,” additionally that includes Lil Wayne, Quavo and Justin Bieber, hit No. 1 on the Billboard Sizzling 100 chart.
Probability’s rising presence in popular culture and his musical output have set a excessive commonplace for him. Sadly, he fell brief along with his debut album, The Huge Day, which led some critics and even followers to conclude that he was extra worthwhile for memes than for music. The discharge of his new undertaking, Star Line, looks like a stage for a fairytale comeback. Nonetheless, for Probability, merely creating good and impactful music is one of the simplest ways to make a comeback—maybe the one approach.
After experiencing a divorce from Kirsten Corley, the mom of his two youngsters, final yr, Probability has taken time to mirror on himself and his life. “I frolicked studying about neighborhood, studying about myself, studying my self-worth,” he shares. “Now, at 32, I might say I perceive myself and the world lots higher.”
Probability realized lots whereas he wasn’t dropping new music. “I’ve in all probability been the busiest I’ve ever been,” he says. He nods to a sequence of self-directed music movies he launched independently and his 2021 live performance movie, Magnificent Coloring World, as proof of his productiveness. Ditto for the Black Star Line tradition pageant he launched and hosted alongside Vic Mensa in Ghana two years in the past.
These facet missions are simply a part of the sprawling creativity and DIY ethos that’s powered Probability’s profession because the second a faculty suspension led him to craft his first mixtape. “Among the finest elements about being unbiased is having the ability to chart your personal path and resolve [your own schedule],” Probability tells. “It permits you loads of time to indicate your greatness in different areas.”
Outdoors of enterprise hours, Probability has been coparenting his two daughters, Kensli, 10, and Marli, 6, as he adjusts to life post-divorce. He and his now ex-wife introduced their plans for divorce final April, and Corley filed the official paperwork that December. When Probability hasn’t been recalibrating his dwelling life, he’s kicked again with audio engineers in his studio’s dwelling theater to observe flicks like Megalopolis or video essays from YouTube creator F.D Signifier.
Moreover, Probability helped reopen Chicago’s Ramova Theater in 2023, alongside Quincy Jones, Jennifer Hudson, and 49 different buyers. Whereas it’s nominally an 1,800-person live performance venue that’s hosted acts like ScHoolboy Q and Scarface, Probability used it for cellphone banking, and it’s been rented out for varied native occasions.
After which, in fact, there’s the music. Probability doesn’t keep in mind the precise begin date, however recording periods for Star Line started in 2019. And there have been loads of them. On Sundays, he retains his abilities sharp by becoming a member of Zoom conferences with different producers and rappers, corresponding to Jean Deaux, Mick Jenkins and Saba, for digital writing bootcamps referred to as 16s chapel: write a powerful 16-bar verse in 16 minutes.
Probability typically discovered himself reimagining songs he had already recorded. Daily, he frolicked reflecting on his work. Over the previous three years, there have been moments when it appeared he may abandon the undertaking, but he by no means set a launch date. He attributes the delay to his meticulous nature. “I create lots like a painter. I work on stuff over time,” Probability explains. “There isn’t a single track on that album the place each verses have been made on the identical day and even in the identical month, normally.”
He toiled away at his newest opus outdoors the glow of the mainstream highlight. Not less than one buddy seen how the phrases of critics and gossip of us weighed on him. “Probability has at all times had this reckless, relentless optimism and an actual buoyant spirit, the factor that folks acknowledge and love in his music,” says his previous buddy Vic Mensa, who joins Probability on the album lower “Again to the Go.” “In a few of these years, I’ve seen darker parts of his character. Simply disappointment and battle and melancholy and the true meat and bones underbelly of human expertise.” There’s no concrete reward for being traumatized, however Mensa says public scrutiny pushed Probability to new creative peaks. “It’s low-key made him write among the dopest sh*t he’s ever written.”
Probability has mentioned Star Line was impressed by travels overseas, nevertheless it’s rooted within the vitality of his Chicago hometown. Buoyed by his reassuring, melodious baritone and embedded with clean verses from native legends Do or Die, “Trip” might soundtrack a cruise down Lake Shore Drive or a visit within the Magic Faculty Bus. Laced with a sinister piano loop, “Drapetomania” is a kinetic train in playful Chi-town drill, with Probability matching the matter-of-fact decisiveness of rising native star BabyChiefDoit.
However Probability isn’t simply connecting with the brand new era or foundational pillars of the Windy Metropolis’s rap yesteryear. He’s linking up with fellow native heroes, who’re associates, like Mensa, BJ The Chicago Child and Jamila Woods, too.
On a technical degree, Probability regarded to embody Lupe Fiasco’s political fury and magical command of sensory element. With tracks like “Star Aspect Intro,” he lays out a proverbial loss of life and resurrection narrative of his profession. It’s one laced with acts of charity, highly effective flexes and his customary rap pyrotechnics. “The final time that my examine obtained commas/My whips obtained horses, my chains obtained blinders/Academics obtained laptops, the youngsters obtained binders/Celeb barber, however my stars all lined up/The three went platinum, the one went diamond/I had a F-minus, however that’s behind us,” Probability raps on the observe, with the ultimate line within the stanza hovering like an exhale.
Star Line is extra reflective than vindictive, which was a thematic crucial for Probability when finishing the undertaking. Elsewhere on the album, he raps about melancholy and misplaced innocence (“No Extra Outdated Males” with Jamila Woods). For the latter, Probability’s somber hook hovers like a lone, suspended balloon above the Chicago skyline.
Half rebirth and maybe half eulogy for his previous self, Star Line eschews the cloying, meandering nature of The Huge Day, rendering his ideas with the agility, readability and melodic coloring that helped make him a star greater than a decade in the past. Star Line isn’t a significant business triumph—it debuted at No. 22 on the Billboard 200 albums chart—nevertheless it’s gotten favorable critiques from critics and followers alike.
Mick Jenkins, who partakes within the 16s chapel periods with Probability and has recognized him since Probability referred to as out Mick for spitting pre-written verses throughout a freestyle session outdoors of the Chicago Public Library over 15 years in the past, nods to Probability’s new music as a promise fulfilled.
“The course that music went [with The Big Day] wasn’t what loads of his followers needed, and so they allow them to know that they didn’t like that music,” Jenkins conveys. “I feel that’s part of why individuals are so enthusiastic about this music now. It’s lots higher. [Star Line] looks like a return to one thing that Probability has championed and is absolutely good at.”
Probability says he feels lighter now that his new album is out on the earth. “Everytime you’re deep within the artistic course of, at a sure level it begins to take toll in your schedule, your physique, your relationships, simply methods of pondering,” he says throughout a follow-up cellphone name from Chicago O’Hare Worldwide Airport three days after the album’s launch. “You’re going again to the stuff that you just wrote days in the past, months in the past, years in the past and reevaluating it. After which, as soon as it’s out and it’s like a flat factor, you get to actually see it for the finalized, executed magnificence that it’s.”
Strolling by the streets of Chicago after his album dropped, Probability can really feel Star Line come to life; he recollects listening to two vehicles play “Trip.” In a metropolis marred by the newer deaths of Juice Wrld and King Von, and the arrest of Lil Durk, he’s not misplaced on the importance of his return to his hometown, the place he as soon as donated $1 million to assist public colleges. “I feel individuals are glad that any person is being celebrated and acknowledged for telling our tales and the entire story,” Probability affirms. “It offers folks a way of nostalgia to really feel a win.”
Now, the award-winning artist is trying forward. He needs to proceed his Writings on the Wall sequence, which he launched in 2024. Probability calls it an audio-visual presentation with lighting and projections that has allowed hundreds of followers to expertise his new album in a extra immersive trend. His aim is to convey that exhibit to hundreds extra.
On previous songs like “Paradise,” he rapped about doubtlessly operating for mayor of Chicago— perhaps that’ll occur sooner or later—however today, he’s centered on constructing his rap constituency. “What I really feel courageous in and really feel like I’ve is an extremely sharp and deadly sword: writing raps and doing interviews,” he affords.
He’s on the street once more, too. September kicked off Probability’s We Again Tour, a 15-city trek going from Houston to Los Angeles. “I’m actually excited to satisfy new folks,” he says. He needs to reconnect with longtime followers, too. “It’s been six years since I dropped [The Big Day], so I meet followers which can be like, ‘I used to be in fourth or fifth grade while you dropped it. I’m in highschool now.’” The rap ace will likely be assembly and greeting by October.
Whereas he brings his sound to the stage, Probability additionally has a authorized battle on his arms. 5 years in the past, his former supervisor, Pat Corcoran, hit Probability with a $3 million lawsuit for allegedly failing to honor their work settlement. Probability, who initially fired Corcoran after the discharge of The Huge Day, then filed his personal lawsuit a yr later, alleging that Corcoran “breached his fiduciary duties.”
The back-and-forth has solely continued, with Corcoran demanding to be paid for the unpaid royalties stipulated by a verbal settlement with Probability. In March, an Illinois choose denied Probability’s movement for a abstract judgment within the matter, so the case is now headed to trial. At press time, no date has been set, however Probability’s authorized staff has continued to disclaim that there’s any validity to Corcoran’s case.
In a authorized sense, Probability must show himself in court docket. Outdoors of it, he appears extra invested in leveling up his craft than issues as petty as proving folks unsuitable—even when he understands why followers would need him to take action. For supporters who grew up with Probability, it was onerous to dwell with web gossip and claims of a fall off. The hope is, for now, they gained’t should.
“When folks felt like folks have been enjoying with my identify, it damage them,” Probability says. “[They] needed me to place out a physique of labor that may really feel like I used to be stepping on the haters. I at all times need to do proper by the people who love me.”
Sifting by contemporary inspiration, Probability The Rapper’s newest period looks like a transparent reply to that problem.
Take heed to Probability The Rapper’s Star Line Album
The autumn 2025 situation of XXL journal that includes Probability The Rapper’s interview is offered to buy right here. The difficulty additionally consists of Joey Bada$$ and J.I.D’s cowl story interviews, conversations with Hit-Boy, Probability The Rapper, Rob49, KenTheMan, Bay Swag, Curren$y, Wallo267, Hurricane Knowledge, Hanumankind, Babyfxce E, Ghostface Killah, Conway The Machine, Pluto, TiaCorine, singer Isaiah Falls, comic Josh Joshson, Vice President of Music at SiriusXM and Pandora Joshua “J1” Raiford, a take a look at the change in album rollouts through the years highlighted by Clipse’s Let God Type Em Out album and extra.
See Photographs From Joey Bada$$ and J.I.D’s XXL Journal Fall 2025 Cowl Shoot
