One Nation is making a determined push to secure its first seat in Western Australia’s Legislative Assembly, fielding candidate Luke Herdegen in the Secret Harbour by-election. Party leader Pauline Hanson has urged Mr. Herdegen to “go hard” on the final day of campaigning, expressing pride in his efforts regardless of the outcome.

In a message to Mr. Herdegen, Senator Hanson acknowledged his dedication throughout the campaign, stating, “From day one you’ve committed every waking hour to this Secret Harbour campaign and I can’t be prouder.” She added that his candidacy had put both the Labor and Liberal parties on notice, and conveyed the support of the party’s East Coast members.

Voting is underway across Secret Harbour’s nine polling places, with One Nation expressing confidence in their chances for an upset in what is traditionally a safe Labor seat. The party is actively targeting Labor-held electorates across the state.

The Secret Harbour By-election Landscape

The Secret Harbour electorate, located south of Rockingham, has a significant margin for Labor, nearly 12 percent. Historically, the seat would be considered a secure hold for the incumbent party. However, the retirement of former Labor member and minister Paul Papalia, coupled with a resurgent One Nation, presents a unique opportunity for Pauline Hanson’s party to achieve a breakthrough in the WA Parliament.

Several factors are contributing to the dynamic political environment in Secret Harbour:

• National Issues: Rising cost-of-living pressures and the housing crisis are prominent concerns for voters. One Nation has linked these issues, in part, to immigration levels.
• Federal Government Unpopularity: The perceived unpopularity of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is also seen as a factor potentially impacting WA Labor’s chances.
• Campaign Missteps: Reports suggest that campaign stumbles, such as preventing the Labor candidate from speaking at a local announcement, have inadvertently benefited One Nation.

Candidate Footprints

A notable aspect of this by-election is that none of the major party candidates—Labor’s Georgia Tree, One Nation’s Luke Herdegen, or the Liberal candidate—reside within the Secret Harbour electorate itself. Mr. Herdegen and the Liberal candidate live in the nearby Rockingham area, while Ms. Tree resides in Perth. Labor sources have indicated that Ms. Tree’s Perth residency has been a point of concern for their campaign.

One Nation’s Electoral Performance and Ambitions

Luke Herdegen, a 39-year-old gym owner, has expressed optimism about One Nation’s potential to win the seat on primary votes. This ambition comes despite Labor securing 46.6 percent of first preferences in the March 2025 State election, with One Nation polling just 8.4 percent at that time.

The broader political landscape has shifted significantly since previous elections. One Nation has demonstrated increased electoral strength, securing four lower house seats in the South Australian election and winning the formerly Liberal-held seat of Farrer federally. Nationally, One Nation’s primary vote is reportedly close to Labor’s, nearing 30 percent.

Campaign Spending and Voter Turnout

WA Labor has invested heavily in retaining the Secret Harbour seat, reportedly spending an unprecedented $400,000. Despite this significant expenditure, Labor sources have privately expressed concerns, hoping for a positive result but preparing for the possibility of a loss.

With 36,407 eligible voters in the electorate, a substantial portion, 45 percent, has already cast their ballots through pre-poll and postal voting. The Western Australian Electoral Commission (WAEC) anticipates a longer counting process due to the large number of candidates—16 in total—on the ballot paper. While an indicative result is expected on election night, the final declaration will not be made until after September 3, following the counting of all postal votes.

One Nation’s State Leadership Perspective

Rod Caddies, One Nation WA leader and Member of the Legislative Council, conveyed the party’s confidence in achieving victory, while maintaining a degree of caution. “We are confident, but we don’t want to be arrogant about it,” Mr. Caddies stated. “We are not taking it for granted. We will work all day long to try and convince people we are the best choice.”

Mr. Caddies highlighted that federal issues, particularly the cost of living and housing affordability, have been consistently raised by voters. Concerns about immigration’s impact on housing availability and the issue of homelessness in areas like Rockingham have also been frequently mentioned.

Key Campaign Dynamics and Voter Sentiment

The by-election campaign saw visits from prominent figures, including Senator Hanson and federal Liberal leader Angus Taylor. Notably, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not visit the electorate during his three-day stay in Perth, which included attending high-priced fundraising events.

Mr. Caddies suggested that Mr. Albanese’s perceived unpopularity has been a factor in the Secret Harbour contest. “Albanese has come up as being a liar because of broken promises on negative gearing and capital gains tax changes,” he remarked, reflecting voter sentiment that “You can’t trust Labor.”

Voters have also expressed dissatisfaction with state government performance, with Mr. Caddies noting that individuals cited broken promises regarding the Karnup Train Station, a commitment eventually made by the state government during the campaign.

Conclusion

The Secret Harbour by-election represents a significant contest for One Nation, offering a potential pathway to their first seat in the WA Legislative Assembly. The campaign has been shaped by national economic concerns, voter dissatisfaction with incumbent parties, and strategic efforts by One Nation to capitalize on these sentiments. The outcome will be closely watched as an indicator of the party’s growing influence in Western Australian politics.