A recent poll indicates Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer could prevail in a Labour leadership contest against Wes Streeting but would likely lose to Andy Burnham among party members.

Head-to-Head Poll Findings

The survey reveals Sir Keir secures 53 percent support against the former health secretary’s 23 percent in a direct matchup. However, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham dominates with 61 percent backing, defeating the Prime Minister decisively.

Sir Keir also trails Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Lucy Powell in hypothetical contests among Labour members. He outperforms rivals including Al Carns, Darren Jones, Bridget Phillipson, Louise Haigh, Yvette Cooper, Shabana Mahmood, and Lucy Powell in other scenarios.

Party Member Views on Leadership

Despite these results, 57 percent of members favor a leadership change, with 84 percent demanding a clear timetable for any contest. Most prefer the Prime Minister delay his exit until autumn conference season (43 percent), rather than resign immediately (12 percent).

The Prime Minister vows to contest any challenge and would appear automatically on the ballot. The poll, conducted before Andy Burnham’s announcement seeking permission to contest the vacant Makerfield seat, suggests members seek time for him to secure a Westminster position.

Expert Analysis

Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, notes Sir Keir and Wes Streeting were neck-and-neck last November, but membership support for the Prime Minister has grown. He attributes Streeting’s decline to his overt ambition for the top job.

Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, describes the results as challenging for Streeting: “The membership may not be happy with Keir Starmer, but when faced with a challenge from Wes they do not currently believe that is the change that is needed. Wes is a great communicator, and were a contest to come down to just him and Keir Starmer, it could be that he can persuade enough people to change their minds. But as it stands he will be facing a Herculean task to do so.”

Catherine West Weighs In

Labour MP Catherine West, who sparked recent debate by initially threatening a leadership bid before withdrawing, believes Sir Keir could succeed. Speaking on BBC Radio 4, she stated: “If Keir Starmer decides he has got the bottle and he can come and fight – fight as if he is fighting for the working people of this country – then he could beat the others, because he is a very bright man.”

West represents Hornsey and Friern Barnet and had called for a departure timetable, briefly rallying colleagues before stepping back from a challenge or canvassing effort.

Survation polled 1,124 LabourList readers identifying as party members over the past two days.