Holidaymakers across Europe prepare for potential flight disruptions this summer as jet fuel shortages threaten cancellations within six weeks. Officials simulate scenarios for supply issues tied to the Iran conflict, possibly starting around the late May bank holiday, just as peak travel season begins. Travelers already encounter higher fares after jet fuel costs doubled since the conflict erupted, with airlines passing expenses directly to passengers.
Warnings of Imminent Shortages
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), alerts that Europe holds only about six weeks of jet fuel reserves. He warns that patchy oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—a route for one-fifth of global oil—could soon force airlines to cancel flights from city A to city B due to shortages. European airport operators express rising concerns, especially for smaller facilities vulnerable to disruptions.
UK officials model shortages in five to six weeks, estimating less than 10% of flights might cancel. British suppliers have diversified sources effectively, requiring airlines to notify passengers at least two weeks in advance of any changes. Despite this, thousands of summer trips remain at risk.
Border Controls Spark Airport Chaos
New EU Entry/Exit System (EES) rules for non-EU travelers, now fully active, already cause severe delays. Passengers at an Italian airport recently suffered vomiting and fainting after hours stranded in queues. Thomas Reynaert, vice president of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), voices concerns over unresolved issues: “We are very concerned about the lack of progress in resolving problems with the EES. Unless there is action to ensure borders are adequately manned and the electronic gates and remote app are working properly, we could see passengers, including families with kids, queuing up to four hours in popular holiday destinations.”
Peak season passenger surges may overwhelm some airports, repeating such scenes.
Government and Industry Responses
Airlines UK, representing carriers like British Airways, easyJet, and Ryanair, collaborates with the government on contingency measures amid Middle East tensions. No current supply disruptions occur, but planning prioritizes air ambulances, police helicopters, and emergency services in worst-case scenarios.
A government spokesperson confirms ongoing support for airlines to minimize passenger impacts.
Advice for Affected Travelers
Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, advises: “If a package holiday or a flight is cancelled then you should get a refund, although you might lose out if you had a hotel booked separately from the flight. It is always safer to book a package, otherwise you are left relying on travel insurance which often has unexpected loopholes.”
Paul Charles, CEO of The PC Agency, highlights risks: Demand for flights hits record highs, and even a swift war resolution leaves a fuel gap. Long-haul routes face severe impacts, as airlines hesitate to fly without guaranteed destination fuel, fearing strandings.
